I know the following to be true. (Note that you, as different townspeople, will not necessarily know these things to be true.*)
- I am an ordinary Villager.
- Vararam was inaccurate when he said that I was a Werewolf; therefore, either he is not the Seer, or he is a Seer who is lying for some reason.
I assume the following to be true.
- Cimarron is the Seer. He is the only one other than Vararam who has claimed to be as such.
- Cimarron had no reason to lie when he told me that his first vision was on Saloonka the non-Werewolf. Therefore, Saloonka is not a Werewolf (though not necessarily not the Warlock).
- The Seer would not lie about his visions. Therefore, Vararam is not a lying Seer, and therefore is not a Seer at all.
If Vararam is not the Seer, then there are several possibilities for his role, and all have different implications.
- Vararam could be a Warlock.
For most of the (*game*) day so far, this is what I've considered to be the case. To be honest, I'm still not comfortable with abandoning this possibility. What Vararam did so far coincides with a nearly perfect Warlock strategy. If this is true, then by process of elimation, Kaloth must be the Werewolf (Cimarron, Saloonka, Vararam, and myself are all non-Werewolf roles). However, there are some things that suggest that this might not be the case. For instance, he told me through PM that he would be willing to lynch Kaloth, who must be the Werewolf if all previous assumptions are true. Of course, this could be a ploy to induce confusion (if it is, it's doing a good job). - Vararam could be a Villager.
As I said, Vararam sent me a PM. Among other things, he claimed to be a Villager (as he did in this thread as well). Assuming this is true, then this again implies that Kaloth must be the Werewolf (Cimarron, Saloonka, Vararam, and myself are still all non-Werewolf roles). It seems less likely in my mind, but the implications for what the Villagers should do in such a case are the same as before. I'll get to why below. - Vararam could be a Werewolf.
It does seem counterintuitive, but in spite of putting himself in more danger of being lynched, his actions do seem like a valid strategy for a Werewolf. His goal would then to be to find the Warlock. If he can do that, then he wins so long as he doesn't get lynched today. Surprisingly, his actions could result in him *not* getting lynched; his audacity is his defense. In such a case, the Warlock could be either Kaloth or Saloonka. The fact that his PM to me asked if I received any PMs from people claiming to be Warlocks seems to support this possibility. It's also important to note that this is the only case (from my perspective) under which Kaloth is *not* the Werewolf.
...
I was thinking a bit on how things might play out, and something occured to me...
Let's say that the Village kills the Warlock this (*game*) day. The Werewolf would then survive to day 2, but would not have the benefit of a living Warlock to help him.
But I've heard tales that the dead can still cast their suspicions (*vote during the first phase*). And with five townspeople, a single vote guarantees somebody a place on the chopping block.
The Werewolf could vote for one of the remaining living players, and the dead Warlock could cast suspicion on the other. No matter how the other players voted, either the Werewolf would be the only player not on the chopping block (in which case he lynches somebody and wins) or all remaining players would be on the chopping block (in which case there is no lynching vote, and the Werewolf mauls somebody and wins).
Effectively, the villagers can only win if the Werewolf is killed *now*, or if the Werewolf and Warlock never managed to team up. There is no margin of error; if the Villagers err, they are very likely to lose.
This also means that for an intelligent Werewolf and/or Warlock, finding the other member of the dark side is of high priority. For the Warlock, it is *the* highest priority, even higher than that of finding the Seer, even higher than killing the Seer, and even higher than living. If he succeeds in this, he merely needs to make sure that the Werewolf does not die by the first night's lynch. After that, the dark side can force a win.
...
It is for this reason that I begrudingly place more weight to the possibility that Vararam is a Warlock. He is intelligent (*as the last game should show for anybody who doubts this in the slightest*), and his actions, though they loudly beg for his death, are the most optimum that a Warlock could take in these circumstances.
As stated before, if Vararam is the Warlock, then Kaloth must be the Werewolf. If this is true, then we Villagers cannot waste a single day before killing the Werewolf, not even to kill Vararam the Warlock.
Kaloth, I vote for you. I hope I'm not wrong, and I'm sorry if I am.
...
Q.E.D. via the most *ridiculously* large argument...Who's on RY's side? He's just a crazy old man with a walking stick. Nobody listens to him. But Cimmers, Mr. I'm the Seer, look at me I wear sparkly shoes and I'ma save you all. Why would he say that knowing that if the werewolf isn't lynched he'll be eaten? ...unless he doesn't like the game and just wants to get out quickly. But I don't think that's it.
He revealed himself to save my hide.
The real Seer would immediately know that anybody else claiming to be the Seer must be lying. From the real Seer's perspective, I might still have been a Werewolf, but the chances of me being a Werewolf were still the same as anybody else being a Werewolf. However, the Seer would have great reason to suspect anybody else claiming to be a Seer. To to the time sensitive nature of finding a Werewolf in a small village, I imagine that Cimarron, as the real Seer, placed throwing suspicion on Vararam at a higher priority than a chance at his second vision.
I should also note that, because of the overwhelming power that the dark side wields should the Werewolf survive to day 2, the Seer's second night vision literally has no importance, even if it is right. There is no loss for a Seer to come out (though this might not have necessarily been obvious).
Also, I'm neither crazy nor old, and that walking stick you refer to belongs to my parents. And I'm a kid at heart, and a "man" in only the most technical of senses.
