Author Topic: Economic Predictions  (Read 2574 times)

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Offline RedneckFur

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Economic Predictions
« on: June 15, 2009, 09:36:34 pm »
We all know the the economy isnt so good right now.  Companies going bankrupt, folks loosing jobs, goverment aid and bailouts left and right.

My question is, how long do you think it will be before things return to normal? Will they ever return to normal?  Do you feel that things will get much worse before they improve?

I've not done all of my research, but I know the great depression lasted for a decade. Do you feel that this economic slump will last just as long?

How do you think the current problems will be fixed?

I'm still trying to form my openions on all of these questions, but I'm very intrested in seeing what all of you furs think!

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Offline Narei Mooncatt

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Re: Economic Predictions
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2009, 02:05:57 am »
I think the problems will be fixed like all other major economic problems have been fixed: By the people. I believe that governement intervention can only harm the economy, that they stifle inginuity and entrepenuership(SP?). I can speak from something of a personal experience with this. I've thought about getting my own truck and going independent, but there's so many new rules and regulations coming down the pike, and California (as usual) making rules for running in their state that it's affecting drivers around the country, that I don't really think it'd be worth it now. I know it'd be hard to do as it is just trying to compete with the market, but it's been all these new reg's that is more or less the straw on the camel's back. Plus, all these bailouts have to be paid by us, which means less for the people actually doing the work. Not to mention this has resulted in large part because of the government medling in thing. Yeah, it sucks that so many have been put on hard times, but more are going to be in the same spot by handing out money. Remember that bailing out GM was supposed to help them stay afloat? Just another example of our government throwing money at something that isn't going to work.

I don't think things will ever return to normal as we know it. I know the trucking industry is undergoing a major shift with some companies, where they are only running team trucks in the general 48 states and solo's are being moved to regional and dedicated accounts. Team trucks are much more profitable because the truck can roll all the time. I don't expect them to go back to letting solo drivers run 48 states like I used to do. I imagine there's been shifts in other industries like this, where they've changed how they do business to get by and will likely keep it as the new norm because it's more profitable.

But, as a country, we can and will find a way to get through and come out soon. I've been one of the lucky ones. I'm in a better financial situation from a pure monetary standpoint. Of course, with a baby on the way (likely within a month now), I'll by no means have it "easy".
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Offline Motor Mouth

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Re: Economic Predictions
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2009, 05:01:05 pm »
I think that the economy is already stabilizing and that we will be out of the recession by the middle to end of 2010. But the thing that is going to pull us out is not bailouts, but the consumer spending once again.
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Offline Yip

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Re: Economic Predictions
« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2009, 03:16:34 am »
I'm not sure if it means much, but my job search has finally paid off. And just a couple day's after accepting it I got contacted by someone else about an available position. (both of these are game industry jobs)  Plus, and I don't know how much this counts, an expansion to the game Race for The Galaxy was just released last month, and it sold out within about a week at every store I've checked.  So... I'm not sure what that says of the economy as a whole, but I think the entertainment industries (at least games) are doing alright at this point. Hopefully that's a good sign.

Offline Epsy

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Re: Economic Predictions
« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2009, 09:14:11 am »
I think its highly unlikely this recession will last 10 years. Some countries over in Europe are already coming out of the recession.

We also have to make damn sure that the government doesn't attempt to pass another stimulus package.
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Offline CiceroKit

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Re: Economic Predictions
« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2009, 01:10:24 pm »
In five years (or less) we will be in great shape with (at least) most of the baby boomers retiring. There will be a lot more jobs that actually provide truly gainful employment. I know that the favorite quote of many since 2000 has been "service based economy," which was never really true. Yes, the industrial age is over, but we were supposed to be better prepared to enter the information age. We could have done so, but it was also the ushering in of the global economy, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, it was just that the division of certain sectors of the economy had not been as well thought out as it should have been. We were prepared to ship many of the industrial jobs overseas, because this happened in a lesser degree decades before. The truly catastrophic thing is that we found out many in the U.S. lacked the education and skills to be able to step up to the plate and fill information sector jobs. I am not just referring to jobs in IT, but scientific research, engineering, medical, etc. I don't mean to insult the workforce in the U.S., but lets face it, we have been falling way behind in math and science for decades, and there is a trickle-up relationship between education and our economy. I sometimes cringe when I hear that Social Security won't be around in 41-44 years time (when I will be retirement age), but then I think, if I have the need for cancer treatment or open heart surgery, as so many do, there may not be enough skilled professionals in the U.S. to perform these services anyway. There is already a shortage, which in the current day has more to do with superfluous lawsuits and high rates for malpractice insurance. Sorry for getting tangential, but I am bringing the train back around right now. The thing is, I live in a small city that has relied on paper production for too long. A lot of jobs have been cut here, but this has been happening since the 1990s. I saw a real opportunity for our hospital and clinic to develop into a world-class facility, I spoke to some people on the board of directors about this, the sentiment was echoed by many in the community, and it is happening. However, we are struggling to attract the best and brightest in order to become a research facility. There are some additional reasons for this, but when I look at the long-term, I see a tremendous need for our education system to go through some serious changes in order to prepare a workforce that will be able to fill the high tech jobs, not way off in the future, but in the very near future. I think the fast track to college legislation that recently passed (thank you to Sen. Herb Kohl, who is Wisconsin's best Senator in my humble opinion-and an incredibly nice guy, but that is another subject) is a step in the right direction.

On another economic topic, it appears that the housing market is at its rock bottom, so anyone looking at investing in real estate, do it now. The Fed has already hiked mortgage interest rates up again and is expected to raise them even more by the beginning of next year. I don't think we will ever see another housing bubble, and that is for the best, but real estate is, by its very nature, a sound investment (under normal circumstances). I think the wisest investment a person could make right now is to purchase some moderately priced real estate, either a small to mid-size house, and hold on to it for 4-5 years before selling.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2009, 01:14:49 pm by CiceroKit »
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