North Korea: Will there be war?

[Kobuk]

Ok, I'll take a crack at posting in this new forum.

The topic is about North Korea. Lately, that country has been increasingly "hostile" so to speak in negotiations with the US and the United Nations, etc. concerning their past missile launch tests, and now their nuclear weapons program. They continually thumb their noses at all the UN Security resolutions put forth against them.

Do you think NK will go to war if "pushed to the edge" so to speak?
Would we and our allies of South Korea and Japan be able to stop them?
And what would happen if China got involved?

[WhiteShepherd]

I don't think North Korea would go to war.  They haven't the man power to threaten anyone other than South Korea.  I don't think the US  will go to war either.  Three decades of wars has left this country broke.  If China got mad at North Korea they would pound them to dust.  China has gained the world's wealth and has a modern military to show for it. 

[RedneckFur]

I think that for the most part, N. Korea is just making threats and hoping that the world will bow to their pressure.  They may have nukes, but so do lots of countries. Some countries, like the US, Russia, and China, have enough to wipe mankind off the face of the earth.

Korea doesnt have the military might to take on any of the bigger, first world countries yet, so I think their destiny is to remain a thorn in our side for at least 10 more years.

[Kobuk]

Will NK go to war? It's really hard to say. If we and/or the United Nations push too hard with sanctions and other resolutions, then NK may feel backed up against a wall with no way out except for war. Their leadership is very hardline communist, almost to the point of being paranoid I'd say.  Everything that's happening right now in the news may be "sabre rattleing" by the NK, but at some point in the future, I wonder if there really will be war. The only thing from stopping the NK from crossing the Demilitarized Zone into South Korea is just a very, very fragile truce. No "official" peace agreement was ever put into place.
Can the NK cross the DMZ and invade South Korea? Frankly, there's really not much to stop them. Their land forces are the highest concentrations of troops and equipment in that region of the world second only to China. The NK has nearly 1 million troops with another 3-4 million in reserve. They've got THOUSANDS of pieces of tanks and combat vehicles. If we get into a land war with them, I fear we may not win it. The downside to their ground forces is that most of their equipment is 1950's to 1970's stuff which is inferior to today's modern stuff and may be lacking in fuel, parts, and maintenance. The plus side is that large quantities of that equipment is scattered and hidden in underground facilities which are hard to locate and destroy. We don't know where they all are due to lack of intelligence.
Their Air Force and Navy is pretty much the same way. Large quantities of equipment, but a lot of it older stuff which is surplus and was bought from China and the Soviet Union. Their Navy is probably no match for us or our allies. Most of their "fleets" are medium or small craft which comprise mostly patrol boats. They have nothing that can go against us in open ocean. Their Navy is mostly a coastal force.
Can we beat them in the air? Possibly. But first, we have to defeat their VERY high concentrations of Surface-to-Air missile networks. The NK has the highest concentration of SAM equipment and sites ever seen in that region of the world.
Further reading:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/index.html (Scroll down a little after you get there to see further links.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Demilitarized_Zone

[Arbutus]

I don't know. I agree that it probably won't come to war in the end, but I'm a little more pessimistic about the current situation. Since the end of May alone, North Korea has conducted an underground nuclear test, announced plans to reopen their nuclear facility at Yongbyon, test-fired a whole bunch of missiles into the sea between Japan and Korea, and sentenced two American journalists to 12 years in a Stalinist hard-labor camp. They're really going out of their way to threaten everyone they can right now.

Nobody really knows *anything* for sure about what goes on inside North Korea, but many people believe that Kim Jong-il had a stroke last year that left him incapacitated for a while. People are speculating that now, Kim has recovered enough to start governing again, but the stroke has left him even more erratic and mentally unstable than he was before, and he's starting to do really dangerous things.

I don't know what Kim is after, precisely, or what he's trying to make us do, but I think something might have changed for the worse in the past few months.

[Kobuk]

I don't know what Kim is after, precisely, or what he's trying to make us do, but I think something might have changed for the worse in the past few months.

I second this. Whatever happened to his health, I think it left him a few more lightbulbs short of a full chandolier. The guy ain't "all there", know what I mean? Like I said, if he feels really pushed into a corner with no way out, I feel he could do something really dangerous. 

[Mianame]

Along with the other idea listed above, we also have to take into account the current state of America. If NK is paying attention to our media they can probably see that we're not in the best of states at the moment. While things are getting better our economy is still on the fritz and we're already involved in another war. I would say that there is a likely chance that if they were to go to war with us it would probably be soon.

But that's if they even want to target us. There's no real telling. They may go for somewhere closer or may not at all. It's all up in the air, but I'd say there's plenty of evidence to speculate that yes, they very well could be considering it.

[Narei Mooncatt]

Personally, I think ol' Kim is just a short man with a massive inferiority complex....that may lead him to do something bad. And UN sanctions? Yeah, we know that'll work. *eyerolls* I don't think sanctions (by us, the U.N. or anyone) really does any good with these kinds of people. They already get their dasterdly goods on the black market or make it themselves, so it only hurts the common citizens of said country and the leaders ususally couldn't care less about that. They can easily turn it in to their favor, spinning it as if we're the bad guys and rally even more support for his actions. At least, that's how I think a lot of these power hungry people are. I'm all for diplomacy, but not indefinately. There comes a point where you need to start taking action.

[Motor Mouth]

North Korea dosent have the manpower nor cash to afford a war with China, the US, or even a UN force. While his warheads are troubling, in reality he dosen't anymore than 5-10 and these are not doomsday devices were talkin about neither, but short to medium range missiles that would impact China and Japan the most. Kim Jong-il is just like a schoolyard bully, trying to look bigger than he actually is to cover up his own faults.

[Nicholai]

To mirror a bit of what Narei said, I think at this point KIm is far beyond the in influence of U.N sanctions or other diplomatic efforts. If anything, the US isn't even bearing the brunt of N. Korea's saber rattling. South Korea is in grave danger, and both China and Russia have gotten together to try and persuade NK to return to the negotiating table. (more on that here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31401818/ns/world_news-asiapacific/) The two Nations have gotten tired of NK's belligerence, and NK is taking umbrage to the fact that everybody seems to be vexed out of their minds by Nk's inability to do anything productive. Even now there's word that their aiming their missile tests just a little too close to Hawaii: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31423521/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

[Arbutus]

I agree that UN sanctions clearly have no effect on North Korea (and more broadly, I think the UN is a wholly useless organization ), but... what's the alternative? Going to war? In this post-Iraq world? Unless something big happens to change our situation vis-a-vis North Korea, that's far from possible. I don't think even firing a missile at Hawaii will be enough to make that happen... after all, they've been firing missiles at Japan for years, and the world has never been concerned enough to make them stop.

Also... as much as it squicks me to defend the UN... I think the six-party talks have *sort of* accomplished something. They've succeeded in forcing North Korea to see the world on our terms. Think about it-- North Korea is a "rogue state," one that theoretically does whatever the hell it wants and makes threats against the rest of the world. Why do they even bother with diplomacy? Why do they keep voluntarily participating in the six-party talks, when they probably could have had nukes by now without them? I think the answer is that they see some benefit in diplomacy which they know they can't get in any other way-- which means, therefore, that developing a nuclear arsenal is NOT their top priority. Nukes are only their second-choice strategy, their Plan B in case their Plan A (diplomacy) doesn't work out. That's why every year, they stage a big fuss about how they're pulling out of the six-party talks and they're restarting their weapons programs and all that, and then, four months later, they come back to the table again for another try. It keeps them under control much more than they would be otherwise.

I can understand why diplomacy is seen as the best option. Imagine what North Korea would be like if they thought nukes were their only option.