Return of the Werewolf

[Yip]

I think your figures are wrong. It sounds like you are not taking into account players that are eliminated.  While this doesn't effect first night visions (nobody is eliminated yet), it would effect the choice for the second vision target; there is little point in targeting the player that just got lynched. And then of course there is the complication of whether or not the target for the first night got lynched or not. If their previous night's target is still alive at that point, the second vision has a 1 in 2 chance of hitting. But it they used their sense the first night on the person that was lynched, then the second choice is 1 in 3.

And of course it's nearly impossible to mathematically account for the ability to choose based on how players are acting (and how good they throw off suspicion and so forth.)

I'd do more precise calculations (and probably will later), but I need to go now. It's Game Day at my friendly local game store (FLGS). 

[Scrimno]

I should just call it a "Varloc"

Are you trying to give away my identity before I even get it? 

No, I'm a bit behind the power curve. I've been sick lately, but I just finished the intro and your roles are next on my list today.

[Scrimno]

An ill wind was blowing in the peaceful village of Hoffsbrau. But before those who had smelt it could ask who had dealt it, the villagers discovered the source of the smell. A source much more horrible than they originally thought.
   A body laid on the edge of the forest in a disorganized heap of torn limbs and blood, collecting flies. Scattered pieces of flesh were strewn about the scene. Among the body parts is Scrimno's head, seemingly untouched, still smiling stupidly and wearing his green headband.
   Large clawmarks and the brutality of the attack could only mean one thing: a Werewolf! For such an attack to go unnoticed, he must have already made his way into the village and is posing as one of the villagers. Left to his own devices, the Werewolf would gladly pick off the entire village to raise his pack in.
   The villagers' only hope is to put the werewolf to death before that happens. They do have a Seer who can sense for the Werewolf once per night, however there is a Warlock among them who sympathizes with the Werewolf for some reason. He can sense for the seer once per night.
   Most importantly perhaps, is how the villagers discuss and vote. Everybody has an opportunity to affect the fate of the entire village.

[Scrimno]

All right, Fates have Deliberated, Planets have aligned, yadda yadda. You should all have your roles now.

The Warloc and Seer can PM me their guesses anytime.

[Yip]

-EDIT-

I was thinking... maybe should we have some designated time when the first night is over so that visions makers can't use initial messages for deciding who to "sense".

[Scrimno]

-EDIT-

I was thinking... maybe should we have some designated time when the first night is over so that visions makers can't use initial messages for deciding who to "sense".

The Day Cycle will begin on Monday. If you want a specific time, I've been going by Midnight on Furtopia's system clock so that works out to be about 5AM for me and I'm in Pacific Standard Time. 

If you're asking for a deadline for the visionaries guesses, I'm gonna leave that a little bit open because I was somewhat late in assigning roles today. I'll wait as long as 12:00PM Furtopian time.

[redyoshi49q]

I think your figures are wrong. It sounds like you are not taking into account players that are eliminated.  While this doesn't effect first night visions (nobody is eliminated yet), it would effect the choice for the second vision target; there is little point in targeting the player that just got lynched. And then of course there is the complication of whether or not the target for the first night got lynched or not. If their previous night's target is still alive at that point, the second vision has a 1 in 2 chance of hitting. But it they used their sense the first night on the person that was lynched, then the second choice is 1 in 3.

I actually did account for this.  First and foremost, I state for clarity's sake that my calculations assumed first night visions, dying visions, and living past the first lynching.  The Seer's chance of success was calculated as shown below: ("CoS" == shorthand for "chance of success")

(COS on first night + (1-COS on first night)*(COS on night 1 w/ dead first night choice + COS on night 1 w/ living first night choice)
1/4 + 3/4*(1/4*1/3 + 3/4*1/2)
1/4 + 3/4*(11/24)
1/4 + 11/32
19/32

The Warlock's calculation, though I did it originally through heuristics rather than an actual calculation, looks like this:

(COS on first night + (1-COS on first night)*(COS on night 1 w/ dead first night choice + COS on night 1 w/ living first night choice and living Seer + COS w/ dead Seer (this is 0, a dead Seer cannot be searched for) )
1/4 + 3/4*(1/4*1/3 + 2/4*1/2 + 1/4*0)
1/4 + 3/4*(1/3)
1/4 + 1/4
1/2

Admittedly, there is a little bit of sloppiness in my math when it comes to the chances of each subcase of night 2 with the given heuristics, but this doesn't drastically bias the results.  (*edit: I no longer think this was the case; I keep on getting myself confused on the matter...*)  As stated before, these are *maximum* probabilities (all variables except choices are assumed to be beneficial to sensing roles).  In the actual game, many of these assumptions will not apply, and the sensing roles will have accordingly lesser chances of success in finding their targets.

I'd do more precise calculations (and probably will later), but I need to go now. It's Game Day at my friendly local game store (FLGS).  

If I have extra time later this week, I'll do some more calculations as well.

[Scrimno]

In the actual game, many of these assumptions will not apply, and the sensing roles will have accordingly lesser chances of success in finding their targets.

Are you saying the Seer and Warloc are both socially incompetent and won't be able to make educated decisions?

sarcasm

[Yip]

(COS on first night + (1-COS on first night)*(COS on night 1 w/ dead first night choice + COS on night 1 w/ living first night choice)
1/4 + 3/4*(1/4*1/3 + 3/4*1/2)
1/4 + 3/4*(11/24)
1/4 + 11/32
19/32

The highlighted part is wrong. If the first choice is still living then the second choice is effectively 100% successful. A failed vision would still narrow it down to one individual.  Also there is a chance that the wolf will be randomly lynched even if the seer didn't find him. This should be counted as a seer success since wolf elimination is their ultimate goal anyway. This adds an extra 15% (3/4 * 1/5) chance of success. (this is the chance that, even though the seer missed the wolf, the wolf dies anyway)

Thus:
(Chance first night hit) + (Chance first night missed * wolf lynch) + Chance first night missed*(Chance first target lynch * Chance second hit w/ dead first target) + (Chance non-wolf non-target non-seer lynch * 100%)
1/4 + 3/4*1/5 + 3/4*(1/5*1/3) + 2/5*1
1/4 + 3/20 + 3/4*1/15 + 2/5
1/4 + 3/20 + 1/20 + 2/5
17/20
an 85% chance of Seer success by the second day. With an additional 10% chance of having it narrowed to one of two players by that point.

Of course, I should reiterate that this is with talking dead + first night visions + visions on night of death. Not using visions on night of death would significantly reduce this (to 51.25% instead of 85%).  And of course, this also is completely ignoring player interaction skewing things since it's impossible to mathematically calculate for that.

Warlock is a bit harder to calculate for. I still need to work on that some more.

[Yip]

Calculations for Warlock visions with talking dead & first night visions & visions on night of death.

{Chance first night hit + Chance first night missed * ((Chance first target lynch * Chance second hit w/ dead first target) + (Chance non-target non-seer non-warlock lynch * Chance second hit w/living first target))}
1/4 + 3/4*((1/5*1/3)+(2/5 * 1/2))
1/4 + 3/4*(1/15+1/5)
1/4 + 3/4*4/15
1/4 + 1/5
9/20
So, during the first day there is 25% of warlock success, but there is a 20% chance of wolf lynch which would make it not matter. BUT, if the warlock and the wolf survive the lynching, then the warlock will have a 45% chance of knowing who the seer is. However, this isn't as bad as it sounds because....

{Chance first night missed * ((Chance first target lynch * Chance second missed w/ dead first target) + (Chance non-target non-seer non-warlock lynch * Chance second missed w/living first target))}
3/4*((1/5*2/3)+(2/5 * 1/2))
3/4*(2/15+1/5)
3/4*5/15
1/4
The Warlock would at that point also have a 25% chance of having narrowed it down to one non-lynched suspect.
For comparison reasons, not using visions on night of death would decrease the Warlocks chances of knowing exactly who the seer is on day two. (to 30% instead of 45%)

Of course, by that point in the game, I'm not sure how useful it would be for the Warlock to know who the seer is.

[Ickyrus]

For some reason, I get the feeling that I'd never want to play a game of tag, monopoly or anything else with Vara. WHY ALL THE MATH? You're crazy and it's scaring the children =;.;= Same with you RY. PUT YOUR HANDS UP AND STEP AWAY FROM THE CALCULATORS.

And you wonder why there's only 6 players. :E

[Kaloth]

Pardon me for asking, what purpose does knowing any of this serve? Either the seer finds the werewolf on night x, or the warlock finds the seer on night x. Then they have to convince the people who is right. Probability doesn't really matter.

[Scrimno]

So is this like a mental peeing contest between you, Vararam and RedYoshi? I hope you're not losing focus of your game goals.

[redyoshi49q]

Pardon me for asking, what purpose does knowing any of this serve? Either the seer finds the werewolf on night x, or the warlock finds the seer on night x. Then they have to convince the people who is right. Probability doesn't really matter.

Ultimately, it probably doesn't, but it's fun anyway.

For some reason, I get the feeling that I'd never want to play a game of tag, monopoly or anything else with Vara. WHY ALL THE MATH? You're crazy and it's scaring the children =;.;= Same with you RY. PUT YOUR HANDS UP AND STEP AWAY FROM THE CALCULATORS.

And you wonder why there's only 6 players. :E

But I never used a calculator!  I just used Notepad++...

(Also, neither of us have mathematically analyzed this game on the forums before this.)

The highlighted part is wrong. If the first choice is still living then the second choice is effectively 100% successful.

...Yeah, you're right; I missed that detail.  I also forgot to state that I assumed that the Werewolf didn't die by a first day lynch with my statistics (this was necessary to maximize the number of senses by each role; I was trying to calculate an upper bound).  I'm pretty sure that accounts for the remaining discrepancy between our numbers.

Eventually, I'll stop being lazy and do more complete statistics.  I'm also starting to think that putting those statistics in this thread is a suboptimal idea...

So is this like a mental peeing contest between you, Vararam and RedYoshi? I hope you're not losing focus of your game goals.

For me, this was just some extra gameplay irrelevant fun to take up the extra night phase time on Sunday.

...This should be an interesting game.  I have a feeling that most of the people playing would know how to handle "dark side" roles...

[Yip]

Pardon me for asking, what purpose does knowing any of this serve? Either the seer finds the werewolf on night x, or the warlock finds the seer on night x. Then they have to convince the people who is right. Probability doesn't really matter.

It was analyzing whether using all three rules (talking dead, visions on opening night, and visions on the day of death) would make the sensing roles too powerful. I have a feeling it would for the seer in a game with so few players. Anyways, that's not important for the current game.  But like RedYoshi said, it's fun anyways.

For some reason, I get the feeling that I'd never want to play a game of tag, monopoly or anything else with Vara. WHY ALL THE MATH? You're crazy and it's scaring the children =;.;= Same with you RY. PUT YOUR HANDS UP AND STEP AWAY FROM THE CALCULATORS.

And you wonder why there's only 6 players. :E

Don't worry. I don't have to calculate every probability in order to play a game. That was essentially pre-game banter meant to be FUN. Perhaps me and Red Yoshi should have discussed it in PM since I'm not sure anyone else is interested (or necessarily finds it fun). But... oh well.   Oh, and one more thing: My name is not Vara. You can call me Varr.

And now... on with the game at hand!

[Yip]

*Looks at the remains of Scrimno for a bit before turning to face everyone*

This is a tragedy to lose Scrimno in such a gruesome manner. But, he will be avenged. And more importantly, this will be the werewolves last attack in this fair town.  During the night, I sensed it. It was Red Yoshi. He's the werewolf!

[redyoshi49q]

*Looks at the remains of Scrimno for a bit before turning to face everyone*

This is a tragedy to lose Scrimno in such a gruesome manner. But, he will be avenged. And more importantly, this will be the werewolves last attack in this fair town.  During the night, I sensed it. It was Red Yoshi. He's the werewolf!

...

Um... no.  I'm not a Werewolf.  I'm just a Villager.  (*For the *third* consecutive time...*)

You're creating misinformation that distracts from the real Werewolf; therefore, you're definitely on the dark side.  I guess from your chutzpah that you're the Warlock rather than the Werewolf...  or, at least, that's what your behavior suggests as most probable.  You might also be a gutsy Werewolf.

[Yip]

Um... no.  I'm not a Werewolf.  I'm just a Villager.  (*For the *third* consecutive time...*)

You're creating misinformation that distracts from the real Werewolf; therefore, you're definitely on the dark side.  I guess from your chutzpah that you're the Warlock rather than the Werewolf...  or, at least, that's what your behavior suggests as most probable.  You might also be a gutsy Werewolf.

Of course you'd say that, Wolf.

[redyoshi49q]

Of course you'd say that, Wolf.

I'd say this no matter what my role was, but there is a critical point you overlooked.

You claimed to be the Seer, and you accused me of being a Werewolf.  I know you're lying, because I'm not a Werewolf.  The real Seer knows you're lying, because he's the only real Seer.  Given the depressingly small size of our village, two votes guarantees you a spot on the chopping block.

Need I say more?

(*edit*)

Oh, crud...

...That was your plan.  The real Seer would vote for you.

[Kaloth]

*Looks at the remains of Scrimno for a bit before turning to face everyone*

This is a tragedy to lose Scrimno in such a gruesome manner. But, he will be avenged. And more importantly, this will be the werewolves last attack in this fair town.  During the night, I sensed it. It was Red Yoshi. He's the werewolf!

Bold accusations. What evidence can you dredge up to support this claim? More importantly what motivation could you have for such a strong accusation unless you actually are what you say you are, and actually did see it? To do otherwise would have just signed your own death warrant.

[Cimarron]

Im thinking Var is the warewolf.  Im saying that vecause he brought us that complicated math problem.  No common villager or seer (which I dont believe he is) can pull off that fancy math.  He is obviously the warewolf.

[redyoshi49q]

Im thinking Var is the warewolf.  Im saying that vecause he brought us that complicated math problem.  No common villager or seer (which I dont believe he is) can pull off that fancy math.  He is obviously the warewolf.

Yeah, his "complicated math problem" came before his role was definitively assigned.  What he did at that time was not dependent on his role, and therefore cannot be used as evidence of his role.

Though it's possible that he's the Werewolf, I personally think it's unlikely.  He basically put a "Lynch me!" sign on his own back, and this behavior is not consistent with that of a Werewolf.  We should lynch him anyway, though, since he's almost certainly the Warlock. 

[Cimarron]

Eh, I hate to have my logic proven illogical.  I really dont have anything to base it on... but yea.  We should lynch him ... just to be on the safe side.

[Yip]

Eh, I hate to have my logic proven illogical.  I really dont have anything to base it on... but yea.  We should lynch him ... just to be on the safe side.

What the hell are you talking about? No. Do you realize that by me calling out the wolf, I've given opportunity for the warlock and wolf to get in contact?  Like the tales of the village of Lobos (the last game), if the wolf and his helper can work together and both live past the first day, then the village is lost. Plus, even if I weren't the seer and was just making a wild accusation like the wolf-yoshi claims, there is still a chance I'd have picked the wolf at random.  Therefore, "just to be safe", Red Yoshi should be your target. Unless you are the warlock.

[Cimarron]

Me... a warlock? Ive never heard of such a crazy thought.  Just because you're on the hot seat you just wanna get people to macaroniously believe that Im a warlock? Well, Im just a common villager... Im just tryen to lynch this warewolf before word gets out and our property values drop.  Your squirmen' in the hot seat my friend... squirmen'!